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Theory and Hypotheses II. Data III. Econometric Tests IV. Policy ImplicationsHT(<<(0   CEPRES Dataset8221 venture capital and private equity funds 72 venture capital and private equity firms 5117 entrepreneurial firms (3826 venture capital and 1214 private equity) 32 years (1971  2003) 39 countries (North and South America, Europe and Asia) Table 1 (see paper) defines the variablesPD*D*DFDD7* +R,S-T.U/V0W1X2GI. Theory and Hypotheses II. Data III. Econometric Tests IV. Remarks>H#(<(    > Realized Returns Econometrics   Multi-step Heckman correction to measure the returns to VC and private equity investment Heckman selection corrections for Unexited / Exited Investments Partial / Full Exits Statistical problems associated with OLS on a subsample of fully realized IRRsF|4  O|4O>|Z 3-Step Heckman CorrectionProbit: Exit / No Exit Selection Corrected Probit: Full / Partial Exit, accounting for the selection effects associated with an actual exit (step 1) Heckman Linear Regression IRR, accounting for both steps # 1 and 2 " $&Y3Z4tUnexited Reported IRRs (2000  2003) versus Predicted IRRs*;$   6  Contrast reported unexited IRRs (as reported to the institutional investors) with predicted IRRs for unexited investments Log(1+IRR Reported)-Log(1+IRR Expected) = Log((1+Reported IRR)/(1+Predicted IRR) = 143% Regression evidence: quite remarkably(!) consistent with the proposition that more informational asymmetry is associated with more  lying !tZ2ZZ F3F>Fd=X [7\8 [Appendix: Compare Actual IRR to Prior Reported Unexited IRR (This is possible now in 2006!)\\ /%ESubsample of 80 observations (investee firms) from 11 countries for which both the realized and unrealized reported IRR are known (Canada, Finland, France, Germany, Israel, Norway, Spain, Sweden, the Netherlands, the UK, and the US) The correlation between out-of-sample average realized IRRs and our predicted IRRs is 0.45  EF|          p>  q?  r=.Overstatement of Unexited IRRs and Fundraising,Not possible to assess causality but there is evidence of positive correlations between overstatement of unexited reported IRRs and fundraising,j <Correlations: Overstatement of Unexited IRRs and Fundraising== ,]5SI. Theory and Hypotheses II. Data III. Econometric Tests IV. Policy Implications*T:(<  Measuring VC ReturnsPHeckman selection effects are crucial Misspecification of model without selection effects Like Cochrane (2002), unlike Ljungqvist & Richardson (2003), unlike Brander et al. (2002) Multidimensional selection effects are a useful new component introduced in this paper VC value-added is crucial E.g., portfolio size / manager Enables us to explain up to 36% of the variation in returns Cochrane explains at most 1% using market variables only; Ljungqvist & Richardson explain up to 13% with some fund variables, but no proxies for value-added Legality is crucial for cross-country differences&PPPP3 " P&F"F5F<F2F,w : 1Unexited IRRs Reported to Institutional Investors22 $%4Our findings are quite remarkably(!) consistent with the proposition that more informational asymmetry is associated with more  lying ! for smaller ENTs, tech companies, higher earnings aggressiveness index, lower disclosure index Positive correlation between fundraising and lyingR`3J>D`D3@/'()*+-./0 2 :;>ABDE^ _"`$a%b&c'd(e)f*g,h-i/j2t3u5v6w7x80 0` 3fffff3̙3f̙` ̙3f` ff3f` f33f3f` 3ffƍ` fff3` f33̙` 3f|>?" dZ@$?lKd@   l@  P`lA n?" dd@   @@``PT   @ ` `p>>   P @ (  @.T  @ "\\  @ "h @ s *" @  $0e0e BCDELF>5%8c8c     ?1d0u0@Ty2 NP'p<'p@A)BCD|E?|b4"%>Ul @   `c"$  f\  @ "n" @ 0G"r @B T??"  @ <ړGH "`  T Click to edit Master title style! !*  @ 6ݓ "  RClick to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level!     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S T 6| P   P*   T 6x    R*  H T 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.pF] 8(    0@=  P%    >*   0@7   %   @*   6 P    >*   6PA     @* H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.`4Ky0   (  r  S 4g D`  r  S lhD@p      Bi  Z 0̽Ƶ Conference on Private Equity May 2, 200711&*H  0޽h ? 33___PPT10i.p5?+D=' = @B + 0 0 0(   x  c $ @`   x  c $ @  H  0޽h ? 33___PPT10i.Q q+D=' = @B + 0 `F(  x  c $ @`     c $D" @  "p`PpH  0޽h ? 33___PPT10i.:W+D=' = @B + 0 @*(  x  c $ " @`   r  S  " @@P " H  0޽h ? 33___PPT10i.@6X$+D=' = @B + 0 PF(  x  c $" @`     c $(" @ " "p`PpH  0޽h ? 33___PPT10i.R+D=' = @B +  0  (  x  c $|"P"  " H  0޽h ? 33___PPT10i.0+D=' = @B +:* 70 N(    6,""`t W!Institutional and Other Investors"""  0""`D  KVenture Capital Funds"  0(""`J Dp KEntrepreneurial Firms"RB  s *DRB  s *D  RB  s *D P RB  s *D   P    <" 1$    <"4  7Returns    <t"   1$    <p"  X  @Returns (realized vs  expected )!!     <T" KVenture Capital Cycle"   <d" @,E.g., CALPERS California Public Pension FundLB  c $D  <"g:U 4 Pension Plan Members (you and I)  <""`p` ,$@0 .$+  <"F: ,$0 5Reporting bias of unexited returns in annual reports?66$r  0"`@0` ,$@0  <0"p ,$0 s?Why care? Distorted asset allocations, less overall fundraising@@$   <" \0,$ 0 m92-7 years before exit event (IPO, Acquisition, Write-off)::$  <"  ,$ 0 ZThis Paper( $  <" P ,$ 0 dCumming & Johan (2007 JBF) CD Howe Institute, AEI Sciences Po, Brookings, PWC, EVCA, NVCA, etc. They all care a lot!\ m $[$H  0޽h ? 33$___PPT10.q03n+:;RD' "= @B D;' = @BA?%,( < +O%,( < +D{' =%(D#' =%(D' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*%(D' =+4 8?\CB#ppt_xBCB#ppt_xB*Y3>B ppt_x<*D' =+4 8?dCB1+#ppt_h/2BCB#ppt_yB*Y3>B ppt_y<*D@' =%(D' =%(DD' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*%(D' =-s6Bcircle(in)*<3<*DD' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*%(D' =-s6Bcircle(in)*<3<*Dc' =%(D ' =%(Dg' =4@BBBB%()))D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*%(D' =-s6Bcircle(in)*<3<*DD' =A@BBBB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*%(D' =-s6Bcircle(in)*<3<*D2' =%(D' =%(D' =A@BB BB0B%()))D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*%(D' =-6B%slide(fromBottom)*<3<*D' =%(D' =%(DR' =A@BB BB0B%(D' =1:Bvisible*o3>+#.<*%(D' =-6B%slide(fromBottom)*<3<*+P+0+0 ++0+0 ++0+0 ++0+0 ++0+0 ++0+0 + 0 L(  ~  s *" @`     c $," @0P " "p`PpH  0޽h ? 33___PPT10i.a3+D='  = @B + 0 6(  ~  s * @`   x  c $H  @PP  H  0޽h ? 33___PPT10i.a3+D='  = @B + 0 6(  ~  s * @`   x  c $4" @@0  H  0޽h ? 33___PPT10i.a3+D='  = @B +  0 6(  ~  s *7 @`   x  c $X8 @`p`   H  0޽h ? 33___PPT10i.a3+D='  = @B + "0  (  x  c $AP"   H  0޽h ? 33___PPT10i.0+D='  = @B +  0 40(  4x 4 c $4] @`   x 4 c $Y @  H 4 0޽h ? 33___PPT10i.`=+D='  = @B +$0 0l(  4  # AH  0޽h ? 33___PPT10i.M+D='  = @B +%0 Pl(  4  # AH  0޽h ? 33___PPT10i.X+D='  = @B +&0 ( p(    <p  `0Table 2. Summary Statistics and Difference Tests11 p  #"NB   p  B\?sp  p <= 0.000***0( c b    @`  B?sp y-0.60.(c b    @`  B\?Asp y15.68.(c b    @`  Bl?wsAp y61.07.(c b    @`  Bش? swp x1824.(c b    @`  B?> s p x0.00.(c b    @`  B@Ȇ?t s> p 77.02:(g f    @`  Bd҆?st p x2000.(c b    @`  B܆?sp #Country Disclosure Level Index < 76.$(#c b  $  @`  B\?w s  p <= 0.000***0( c b    @`  Bl?w s x1.20.(c b    @`  B?Aw s y19.05.(c b    @`  B?ww As y91.96.(c b    @`  B ? w ws w595.(c b    @`  BL?> w s x5.64.(c b    @`  BH#?t w > s 18.80:(g f    @`  B?w t s w621.(c b    @`  B?w s #Country Disclosure Level Index > 76.$(#c b  $  @`  BTA?y w   p <= 0.000***0( c b    @`  B;?y w  y-0.54.(c b    @`  BU?Ay w  y16.22.(c b    @`  BxO?wy Aw  y62.54.(c b    @`  B(P? y ww  x1773.(c b    @`  Bc?> y w  x0.00.(c b    @`  B}?t y > w  77.92:(g f    @`  Bv?y t w  x1858.(c b    @`  B ?y w  .Country Earnings Aggressiveness Index < -0.383./(.c b  /  @`  B?| y   p <= 0.000***0( c b    @`  B?| y  x1.03.(c b    @`  BL?A| y  y18.39.(c b    @`  Bਡ?w| Ay  y85.50.(c b    @`  B¡? | wy  w646.(c b    @`  B?> | y  x3.17.(c b    @`  BT֡?t | > y  27.43:(g f    @`  BX?| t y  w765.(c b    @`  BX?| y  .Country Earnings Aggressiveness Index > -0.383./(.c b  /  @`  B4? |   p <= 0.000***0( c b    @`  BD? |  x0.54.(c b    @`  BX ?A |  14.21:(g f    @`  BT?w A|  z113.04.(c b    @`  B? w|  w788.(c b    @`  B?> |  x0.00.(c b    @`  B )?t > |  71.30:(g f    @`  B9? t |  w747.(c b    @`  BC? |  Legality Index < 20.(c b    @`  BM?s    p <= 0.000***0( c b    @`  BH?s   y-0.87.(c b    @`  Ba?As   19.26:(g f    @`  B4[?ws A  y47.23.(c b    @`  BLu? s w  x1631.(c b    @`  Bn?> s  x2.16.(c b    @`  B?t s >  60.01:(g f    @`  B?s t  x1874.(c b    @`  B@?s   Legality Index > 20.(c b    @`  BT?us   p <= 0.000***0( c b    @`  BԠ?us  y-1.32.(c b    @`  B@?Aus  y15.74.(c b    @`  Bâ?wuAs  y12.92.(c b    @`  B? uws  w411.(c b    @`  Bע?> u s  x0.00.(c b    @`  BhѢ?t u> s  z213.32.(c b    @`  Bt?ut s  w311.(c b    @`  Bt?us  Risk Free Return < 3.5%.(c b    @`  B(?yu  p <= 0.000***0( c b    @`  B?yu x1.36.(c b    @`  B?Ayu y17.41.(c b    @`  B ?wyAu y79.59.(c b    @`  B? ywu x2021.(c b    @`  B3?> y u x0.04.(c b    @`  BP-?t y> u y49.36.(c b    @`  BG?yt u x2333.(c b    @`  BP?yu Risk Free Return > 3.5%.(c b    @`  BH[?|y  p <= 0.000***0( c b    @`  BU?|y x0.64.(c b    @`  B_?A|y -10.99:(g f    @`  BTy?w|Ay z108.24.(c b    @`  BX? |wy w511.(c b    @`  BČ?> | y 0.00:(g f    @`  B?t |> y y59.07.(c b    @`  Bs?|t y x2010.(c b    @`  BP?|y MSCI Return < 3.5%.(c b    @`  B?|  p <= 0.000***0( c b    @`  BȮ?| y-1.14.(c b    @`  Bȸ?A| 20.21:(g f    @`  Bѣ?wA| y58.07.(c b    @`  BHܣ? w| x1908.(c b    @`  B֣?>  | 9.32:(g f    @`  B֣?t > | y76.88.(c b    @`  B?t | w611.(c b    @`  B?| MSCI Return > 3.5%.(c b    @`  B ? u.(c b    @`  BL? u.(c b    @`  BH#?A u.(c b    @` ~ B?wA u.(c b    @` } B? w u.(c b    @` | B0?>   u.(c b    @` { BJ?t >  u.(c b    @` z B4D?t  u.(c b    @` y B^? Market and Legal Factors0(c b    @` o BTh?6  p <= 0.00***2 ( c b    @` n Bb?6 |0.222(c b    @` m B@l?A6 }16.992(c b    @` l B?w6A }68.672(c b    @` k Bv? 6w |24192(c b    @` j B?> 6  |0.002(c b    @` i Bh?t 6>  }63.232(c b    @` h Bt?6t  |26192(c b    @` g Bt?6 All Funds in the Data.(c b    @` f B?6 u.(c b    @` e B?6 u.(c b    @` d BĤ?A6 u.(c b    @` c BXߤ?wA6 u.(c b    @` b Bؤ? w6 u.(c b    @` a B?>  6 u.(c b    @` ` B?t > 6 u.(c b    @` _ B?t 6 u.(c b    @` ^ B?6  All Funds0 ( c b    @` T B? {Medians.(c b    @` S B? yMeans.(c b    @` R B.?A ~ Median IRR. ( c b    @` Q B8?wA  Average IRR. ( c b    @` P BC? w  # Ent Firms. ( c b &    @` O BT>?>   ~ Median IRR. ( c b    @` N B$X?t >   Average IRR. ( c b    @` M B0S?t   # Ent Firms. ( c b &    @` L Bm? PE Fund Characteristics.(c b    @` J Bg? Difference Tests0(c b    @`? G B?  #Fully Realized Ent Firm InvestmentsB$(c c b &    @`Q D B|?  5Unrealized / Partially realized Ent Firm InvestmentsB6(!c c b &!    @` C B? u.(c b    @`ZB  s *1 ?HB  C ppHB  C pHB  C pZB  s *1 ?H  0޽h ? 33___PPT10i.s+D=' = @B +'0 -(    <8٥0 l<Table 2. Summary Statistics and Difference Tests (Continued)==   #"j^ } Bޥ?L  p <= 0.000***0( c b    @` | B?L |2.01**0(c b    @` { B?BL y20.28.(c b    @` z B?wLB y62.76.(c b    @` y B ? Lw x1603.(c b    @` x B?? L  x7.92.(c b    @` w B!?t L?  15.42:(g f    @` v Bd?Lt  x1173.(c b    @` u B?L Industry Market / Book < 5.(c b    @` t B??L  p <= 0.000***0( c b    @` s B(:?L y-0.55.(c b    @` r BS?BL x6.08.(c b    @` q BM?wBL y80.27.(c b    @` p B`N? wL w816.(c b    @` o BLa??  L x0.00.(c b    @` n BL{?t ? L 101.95:(g f    @` m Bt?t L x1448.(c b    @` l Bu?L Industry Market / Book > 5.(c b    @` k B?   p <= 0.680 . ( c b    @` j B?  x1.29.(c b    @` i B윦?B  y29.45.(c b    @` h Bh?w B z649.54.(c b    @` g B? w v14.(c b    @` f B4ʦ??   x0.00.(c b    @` e BĦ?t ?  y31.41.(c b    @` d B ަ? t  u9.(c b    @` c B ?  Publicly Listed Firm.(c b    @` b B?n    p <= 0.006***0( c b    @` a B?n   y-0.69.(c b    @` ` B?Bn   y25.52.(c b    @` _ B?wn B  y69.11.(c b    @` ^ B ? n w  w132.(c b    @` ] B#?? n  y17.14.(c b    @` \ B?t n ?  z144.32.(c b    @` [ B7?n t  w153.(c b    @`  Z BB?n   Other Type of Private Equity.(c b    @` Y BK? n   p <= 0.052*0 ( c b    @` X BLF? n  x0.37.(c b    @` W BO?B n  y44.72.(c b    @` V B4i?w Bn  y32.73.(c b    @` U BpZ? wn  v17.(c b    @` T B}?? n  y13.55.(c b    @` S Bv?t ? n  y27.43.(c b    @` R B쐧? t n  v30.(c b    @` Q B? n  wLBO.(c b    @` P B4?-    p <= 0.000***0( c b    @` O BЮ?-   y-0.35.(c b    @` N B?B-   y28.27.(c b    @` M B<?w- B  y33.33.(c b    @` L B(? - w  w266.(c b    @` K B(֧?? -  x8.53.(c b    @` J Bϧ?t - ?  y43.79.(c b    @` I B?- t  w309.(c b    @` H Bp?-   MBO/MBI.(c b 4     @` G BD? -   p <= 0.000***0( c b    @` F BX ? -  x1.50.(c b    @` E BT?B -  y25.34.(c b    @` D BH?w B-  z121.20.(c b    @` C B&? w-  w116.(c b    @` B B0?? -  x0.00.(c b    @` A B@+?t ? -  y55.77.(c b    @` @ B`4? t -  w168.(c b    @` ? B0O? -  ~ Late Stage. ( c b    @` > B Y?    p <= 0.000***0( c b    @` = BtS?   y-0.36.(c b    @` < B\?B   y20.00.(c b    @` ; Btv?w B  y71.69.(c b    @` : Bg? w  x1119.(c b    @` 9 B@??  x5.09.(c b    @` 8 B ?t ?  y91.80.(c b    @` 7 B,? t  w838.(c b    @` 6 BT?   &Unknown Seed, Early or Expansion Stage.'(&c b  '  @` 5 B?N    p <= 0.000***0( c b    @` 4 BX?N   y-0.56.(c b    @` 3 BHƩ?BN   y14.54.(c b    @` 2 B?wN B  y28.91.(c b    @` 1 BLɩ? N w  w226.(c b    @` 0 B?? N  x0.00.(c b    @` / B,ݩ?t N ?  y36.40.(c b    @` . B?N t  w240.(c b    @` - B?N   Expansion Stage.(c b    @` , B? N   p <= 0.000***0( c b    @` + B? N  ~-2.93***0 (c b    @` * B?B N  z-29.14.(c b    @` ) Bx*?w BN  y-1.52.(c b    @` ( B $? wN  w424.(c b    @` ' B$>?? N  x0.00.(c b    @` & B7?t ? N  y39.55.(c b    @` % BQ? t N  w672.(c b    @` $ BD[? N   Early Stage. ( c b    @` # Be?    p <= 0.127 . ( c b    @` " B|o?   |-1.65*0(c b    @` ! B$j?B   z-11.45.(c b    @`   BDs?w B  y48.58.(c b    @`  Bč?  w  v34.(c b    @`  BX??   y18.97.(c b    @`  Bp?t  ?  z126.72.(c b    @`  B ? t  v56.(c b    @`  B?   Start-up Stage.(c b    @`  B侪?p   p <= 0.097*0 ( c b    @`  Bd?p  x1.01.(c b    @`  Bª?Bp  y-2.92.(c b    @`  BLܪ?wpB  z520.37.(c b    @`  Bͪ? pw  v71.(c b    @`  B?? p   x0.00.(c b    @`  B?t p?   x8.88.(c b    @`  B?pt   w146.(c b    @`  B ?p  ~ Seed Stage. ( c b    @`  B ?p w0(c b    @`  B"?p u.(c b    @`  B,?Bp u.(c b    @`  B&?wBp u.(c b    @`   B@? wp u.(c b    @`   B<:??  p u.(c b    @`   BTT?t ? p u.(c b    @`   BM?t p u.(c b    @`   Bg?p $Entrepreneurial Firm Characteristics0%($c b  %  @`  Bq?0  p <= 0.000***0( c b    @`  BDl?0 x0.87.(c b    @`  Bu?B0 22.07:(g f    @`  BD?w0B z101.38.(c b    @`  B? 0w x1431.(c b    @`  B?? 0  x1.70.(c b    @`  B?t 0?  y65.61.(c b    @`  B?0t  x1586.(c b    @`>  B?0 6Portfolio Size (# Investees) / # General Partners < 20.7(6c b &     @`  B̫?0  p <= 0.000***0( c b    @`  Bƫ?0 }-2.52**0(c b    @`  Bx?B0 12.34:(g f    @`  BX?wB0 y21.29.(c b    @`  B? w0 w988.(c b    @`  B(??  0 x0.00.(c b    @`  B< ?t ? 0 y59.58.(c b    @`  B8?t 0 x1035.(c b    @`>  B?0 6Portfolio Size (# Investees) / # General Partners > 20.7(6c b &     @`  B(?  p <= 0.000***0( c b    @`  B2? x0.67.(c b    @`  B\-?B z-91.74.(c b    @`  B7?wB z202.96.(c b    @`  BP? w w186.(c b    @`  BXZ??   x0.00.(c b    @`  B0d?t ?  y71.25.(c b    @`  BA?t  x1391.(c b    @`  Bw? #Age of Specific PE Fund < 1795 days.$(#c b  $  @`  BH?Q  p <= 0.000***0( c b    @`  Bt|?Q x0.19.(c b    @`  Bt?BQ y18.73.(c b    @`  B?wQB y57.48.(c b    @`  B? Qw x2233.(c b    @`  B?? Q  x9.23.(c b    @`  B`?t Q?  y54.15.(c b    @`  BL?Qt  x1230.(c b    @`  BtѬ?Q #Age of Specific PE Fund > 1795 days.$(#c b  $  @`  B̬?Q  p <= 0.000***0( c b    @`  B,?Q x0.29.(c b    @`  B߬?BQ y20.27.(c b    @`  B?wBQ y59.11.(c b    @`  B? wQ x1638.(c b    @`  Bt ??  Q y10.30.(c b    @`  Bl?t ? Q y53.55.(c b    @`  B"?t Q x1018.(c b    @`   B,?Q Fund Number in the PE Firm < 3.(c b    @`  B,'?  p <= 0.000***0( c b    @`  B@? x0.34.(c b    @`  B:?B x1.51.(c b    @`  BXT?wB y88.72.(c b    @`  BM? w w781.(c b    @`  Bg??   x0.00.(c b    @`  Bq?t ?  y69.37.(c b    @`  B${?t  x1603.(c b    @`   Ba? Fund Number in the PE Firm > 3.(c b    @`  B菭?r u.(c b    @`  B ?r u.(c b    @`  Bȓ?Br u.(c b    @`  Bx?wrB u.(c b    @`  Bd? rw u.(c b    @`  B<?? r  u.(c b    @`  Bк?t r?  u.(c b    @`  Bԭ?rt  u.(c b    @`  Bޭ?r Fund Characteristics0(c b    @`  B?yr {Medians.(c b    @`  B,?yr yMeans.(c b    @`  B?Byr ~ Median IRR. ( c b    @`  B?wyBr  Average IRR. ( c b    @`  B? ywr  # Ent Firms. ( c b &    @`  BH?? y r ~ Median IRR. ( c b    @`  B?t y? r  Average IRR. ( c b    @`  Bt1?yt r  # Ent Firms. ( c b &    @`  B;?yr PE Fund Characteristics.(c b    @`  Bh6?y Difference Tests0(c b    @`?  BQ? y #Fully Realized Ent Firm InvestmentsB$(c c b &    @`Q  B@]? y 5Unrealized / Partially realized Ent Firm InvestmentsB6(!c c b &!    @`  Bg?y u.(c b    @`ZB ~ s *1 ?HB  C HB  C HB  C ZB  s *1 ?rrH  0޽h ? 33___PPT10i.s+D=' = @B +ol(0 k~kok(    <0 l<Table 2. Summary Statistics and Difference Tests (Continued)==i   #"B6 11016111011 o BĮ?d  p <= 0.000***0( c b    @` n BӮ?d y-0.75.(c b    @` m BF?Ad x8.60.(c b    @` l B׮?wdA y63.46.(c b    @` k BL? dw x1379.(c b    @` j B?> d  x0.00.(c b    @` i B?t d>  y91.80.(c b    @` h B ?dt  x1311.(c b    @` g B?d 'Initial Amount Invested < $US 2,500,000.(('c b  (  @` f B@"?3 d  p <= 0.000***0( c b    @` e BT,?3 d x1.09.(c b    @` d B&?A3 d y25.22.(c b    @` c B0?w3 Ad y75.58.(c b    @` b BJ? 3 wd x1040.(c b    @` a B0D?> 3 d x5.04.(c b    @` ` BH^?t 3 > d y34.62.(c b    @` _ BW?3 t d x1310.(c b    @` ^ Bq?3 d 'Initial Amount Invested > $US 2,500,000.(('c b  (  @` ] B{? 3   p <= 0.216 . ( c b    @` \ Bv? 3  ~-3.06***0 (c b    @` [ B$?A 3  x0.33.(c b    @` Z B왯?w A3  y-5.26.(c b    @` Y B?  w3  x1055.(c b    @` X B\?>  3  x2.92.(c b    @` W B ?t  > 3  x6.47.(c b    @` V B? t 3  x1418.(c b    @`3 U B0˯? 3  EStandard Deviation of Cash Flows to Entrepreneur / Initial $ Invested.F(Ec b  F  @` T Bկ?    p <= 0.000***0( c b    @` S Bϯ?   y-0.04.(c b    @` R Bٯ?A   y31.49.(c b    @` Q B?w A  z125.85.(c b    @` P BP? w  x1364.(c b    @` O B?>   x0.00.(c b    @` N B?t >   z130.12.(c b    @` M B? t   x1203.(c b    @`3 L B%?   EStandard Deviation of Cash Flows to Entrepreneur / Initial $ Invested.F(Ec b  F  @` K Bp/?    p <= 0.000***0( c b    @` J B*?   y-0.95.(c b    @` I B`3?A   y25.99.(c b    @` H BM?w A  y73.62.(c b    @` G BtG? w  x1162.(c b    @` F Ba?>  y12.77.(c b    @` E B([?t >  z123.03.(c b    @` D Bt? t  w967.(c b    @`" C B?   4Convertible Security with Actual Periodic Cash Flows.5(4c b  5  @` B B䉰?p   p <= 0.000***0( c b    @` A B؃?p  x0.84.(c b    @` @ B?Ap  x0.26.(c b    @` ? B$?wpA  z112.40.(c b    @` > B`? pw  w447.(c b    @` = B?> p  x0.00.(c b    @` < Bд?t p>  y42.84.(c b    @` ; Bΰ?pt  w743.(c b    @` : Btٰ?p  PE Board Seat(s).(c b &     @` 9 B?:p  p <= 0.000***0( c b    @` 8 Bݰ?:p x0.13.(c b    @` 7 B?A:p 13.27:(g f    @` 6 B?w:Ap 48.02:(g f    @` 5 B? :wp w313.(c b    @` 4 B ?> : p x0.00.(c b    @` 3 Bx!?t :> p y44.51.(c b    @` 2 B*?:t p w526.(c b    @` 1 BT5?:p  Co-Investment.( c b    @` 0 B?? :  p <= 0.000***0( c b    @` / Bh9? : x1.01.(c b    @` . BC?A : 15.88:(g f    @` - B]?w A: 151.27:(g f    @` , Bg? w: w449.(c b    @` + Bq?>  : x0.00.(c b    @` * Bz?t > : y68.11.(c b    @` ) B@X? t : w729.(c b    @` ( B? : Syndicated Investment.(c b    @` ' B?   p <= 0.000***0( c b    @` & B ?  y-1.21.(c b    @` % B ?A  y20.33.(c b    @` $ B,?wA  y45.11.(c b    @` # B? w  w633.(c b    @` " B\?>   x8.33.(c b    @` ! B ?t >  y75.01.(c b    @`   Bͱ?t  w864.(c b    @`  BH?  Lead Investment.(c b    @`  BD? w0(c b    @`  B? u.(c b    @`  B?A u.(c b    @`  B?wA u.(c b    @`  B ? w u.(c b    @`  B#?>   u.(c b    @`  B?t >  u.(c b    @`  B7?t  u.(c b    @`   BB? Investment Characteristics0(c b    @`   BL? {Medians.(c b    @`   BE? yMeans.(c b    @`   BpF?A ~ Median IRR. ( c b    @`   BdZ?wA  Average IRR. ( c b    @`  Bt? w  # Ent Firms. ( c b &    @`  Bo?>   ~ Median IRR. ( c b    @`  By?t >   Average IRR. ( c b    @`  B?t   # Ent Firms. ( c b &    @`  B? PE Fund Characteristics.(c b    @`  B,? Difference Tests0(c b    @`?  B?  #Fully Realized Ent Firm InvestmentsB$(c c b &    @`Q  Bܾ?  5Unrealized / Partially realized Ent Firm InvestmentsB6(!c c b &!    @`  B$ɳ? u.(c b    @`ZB p s *1 ?HB q C HB r C HB s C ZB } s *1 ?H  0޽h ? 33___PPT10i.s+D=' = @B +@)0 ??D =>(    < W'Table 3. [Condensed] Correlation Matrix((= PP<  = #"bVxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxP < B?T}< u-0.04*(#   @` < BL?}T< Log (Initial Investment)*(#   @` < B?P}< t(19)*(#   @` < B2?T} t0.01*(#   @`  < Bx<?T}  Standard Deviation of Cash Flows*!( # !  @` < BdF?P} t(18)*(#   @` < B A?T  |0.052('   @` < BZ? T Convertible Security2('   @` < Bld?P  |(17)2('   @` < B_?T@   t0.00*(#   @` < BXi?@ T  { Board Seats* ( #   @` < Bh?P@   t(16)*(#   @` < B}?T @  }-0.062('   @` < BX? T@   Co-Investment2( '   @` < Bd?P @  |(15)2('   @` < B ?T   |0.062('   @` < Bд? T  Syndicated Investment2('   @` < Bl?P   |(14)2('   @` < B?T   |0.072('   @` < B\ô? T   Lead Investor2( '   @` < Bhܴ?P   |(13)2('   @` < B״?TD   t0.01*(#   @` < B ?D T  Log (Industry Market / Book)*(#   @` < B?PD   t(12)*(#   @` < B?T D  t0.03*(#   @` < B ? TD  tLate*(#   @` < B< ?P D  t(11)*(#   @` < B?T  t0.03*(#   @` < Bp?T  y Expansion* ( #   @` < B$'?P  t(10)*(#   @` < BH@?T u-0.03*(#   @` < BLJ?T uEarly*(#   @` < BS?P s(9)*(#   @` < B]?TH }-0.102('   @` < B:?HT |Seed2('   @` < B?    q*(# "    @` k BX?$    q*(# "    @` j BQ?1$   s1.0*(# "    @` i Btk?G1  t0.77*(# "    @` h Bxu?WG  q+*(# "    @` g B ?W  Log (MSCI Return)( # "    @` f B\? q*(# "    @` e Be? q*(# "    @` d B쌹? q*(# "    @` c BH?  q*(# "    @` b B?   q*(# "    @` a Bx?$   q*(# "    @` ` B(?1$  q*(# "    @` _ B?G1 q*(# "    @` ^ B׹?WG @  @` ] Bع?W Market and Legal Factors* # "    @` R B$ܹ? q*(# "    @` Q B? q*(# "    @` P B(? u2.5***(# "    @` O B< ?  x-0.00008* (# "    @` N B8?   w24.4****(# "    @` M B?$   v0.0006*(# "    @` L B\(?1$  q*(# "    @` K B1?G1 q*(# "    @` J B:?WG @  @`  I BE?W #Duration of VC Investment (in Days)($ ## "  $  @` > B??U w-4.0****(# "    @` = BPY?U v-20.27*(# "    @` < B0S?U t-1.0*(# "    @` ; Bl? U u-1.80*(# "    @` : Bf? U  u-11.7*(# "    @` 9 B?$ U  x-0.44**** (# "    @` 8 B8z?1U$  t-1.5*(# "    @` 7 B?GU1 u-5.87*(# "    @` 6 B?WUG @  @` 5 BԦ?UW vConstant(  # "    @` * B԰?U { t-statistic* ( # "    @` ) BT?U { Coefficient* ( # "    @` ( BŻ?U { t-statistic* ( # "    @` ' Bd? U { Coefficient* ( # "    @`  % Bhڻ?$  U Coefficient t-statistic* (# "    @` $ B?1$ U { t-statistic* ( # "    @` # B?G1U { Coefficient* ( # "    @`   B<? Dependent Variable = Log(1+IRR)* (# "    @`   B?  !Dependent Variable=1 if Full Exit*"(!# "  "  @`  B ?$   Dependent Variable=1 if Exit*(# "    @`   B(?G$  Dependent Variable = Log(1+IRR)* (# "    @`=  B$?  SStep 1b: Determinants of Full Exit, conditioned on step 1a regarding an actual exit*T(S# "  T  @`  B.?$   Step 1a: Determinants of Exit*(# "    @`/   B9?\ +2nd Step Heckman Regression (Realized IRRs)*,(+# " &&    @`Q  B<4?$ \ 31st Step Heckman Regression: Bivariate Probit Model*4(3# " @       @`E  BQ?G\$  'OLS on Subsample of Fully Realized IRRs*(('# " @       @`  Bx[?$ \ y Model (2)* ( # "    @`  B V?G$ \ y Model (1)* ( # "    @`   Bp?WGU #Predicted Sign for Realized Returns*$(## "  $  @`  Bi?WU q*(# "    @`(  B0t?* >Panel A. Seed, Start-up, Early and Expansion Stage Investments*?(># "  ?  @`HB  C **HB  C   HB  C * HB  C *\ZB  s *1 ?ZB  s *1 ?UUZB  s *1 ?WW ZB  s *1 ?GG ZB  s *1 ?$ $ ZB  s *1 ?  ZB  s *1 ?\ ZB  s *1 ?\HB  C  sl   E #"rr  D < ?"` sYes*(#     @` D B ?"`  sYes*(#     @` D < ?"`#   rNo*(#     @` D B4 ?"`F#  sYes*(#     @` D B ?"`VF @  @` D B|ü ?"`V Exit Year Dummies?( #     @` D <L ?"`y sYes*(#     @` D Bּ ?"` y sYes*(#     @` D <м ?"`# y  rNo*(#     @` D B ?"`Fy#  sYes*(#     @` D Bp ?"`VyF @  @` D BD ?"`yV Country Dummy Variables?( #     @` D <X  ?"` y sYes*(#     @` D BT ?"` y tYes*(#     @` D < ?"`# y rNo*(#     @` D B ?"`F # y sYes*(#     @` D B( ?"`V Fy @  @` D B9 ?"` Vy Industry Dummy Variables?( #     @`ZB D s *1 ?  `B D 01 ?yy`B D 01 ?`B D 0o ?`B D 0o ? ZB D s *1 ?V VZB D s *1 ?F FZB D s *1 ?# # ZB D s *1 ? ZB D s *1 ? `B D 0o ? H  0޽h ? 33___PPT10i.@+D=' = @B +-0 PzHM(    <0 f6Table 4. Heckman Corrected IRR Regressions (continued)77A  <Hm kPrior work: explains 1% (Cochrane, 2001) to 12% (Ljungqvist and Rihardson, 2003) of variation in VC returnsllF ,1  #RB # s *1 ?RB * s *1 ?<<RB + s *1 ?RB . s *1 ?zz   zH #"fZZrfZZZZZZZZZZrrZZZ   B?i t5.03*(# "    @`  BȤ?# i q*(# "    @`  B|?Fi#  t5.15*(# "    @`  B?iF Akaike Information Statistic( # "    @`  B½?i x-3373.45* (# "    @`   BX?# i x-2756.44* (# "    @`  B?F# i x-3456.74* (# "    @`  B޽?VFi @  @`   B?Vi Loglikelihood Function( # "      @`  B?7 x19.65**** (# "    @`  B?# 7 q*(# "    @`  B?F7#  x15.74**** (# "    @`  B@?V7F @  @`  B$?7V y F Statistic(  # "    @`  B? 7 0.356(' &    @`  B?# 7 }6(' &    @`  B'?F # 7 0.296(' &    @`  B@?V F7 @  @`  BK? V7  Adjusted R28  # + "    @`  BD?   t1358*(# "    @`  Bh_?#    t3213*(# "    @`  BO?F #  t1358*(# "    @`  B@q?V F  @  @`  B|? V  Number of Observations( # "    @`  B8v?l   q*(# "    @`  Bh?l   q*(# "    @`  BH?l   q*(# "    @`  BT? l   q*(# "    @`  B蜾? l   q*(# "    @`  B?# l   q*(# "    @`  B?0l #   q*(# "    @`  B\ʾ?Fl 0  q*(# "    @`  BTӾ?Vl F  @  @`  B վ?l V  Model Diagnostics* # "    @`  B? l  -11.3***6 (' &    @`  B? l  -7.226(' &    @`  Bt? l  q*(# "    @`  B? l  q*(# "    @`  B ? l  q*(# "    @`  BL?# l  q*(# "    @`  B"?0 # l  q*(# "    @`  B?F 0l  q*(# "    @`  B?V Fl  q-*(# "    @`  B?? Vl  ~Heckman Lambda B( # "    @`  BI?:   -2.3**6(' &    @`  BD?:   -2.186(' &    @`  BM?:   q*(# "    @`  B(h? :   q*(# "    @`  Ba? :  q*(# "    @`  B{?# :  q*(# "    @`  Bpu?0: #  q*(# "    @`  B0?F: 0  q*(# "    @`  B4?V: F  q-*(# "    @`  BȢ?: V  ~Heckman Lambda A( # "    @`  B? :  t1.9**(# "    @`  B? :  t0.11*(# "    @`  B? :  q*(# "    @`  Bʿ? :  q*(# "    @`  BxԿ? :  q*(# "    @`  BX޿?# :  q*(# "    @`  Bٿ?0 # :  s1.5*(# "    @`  B4?F 0:  y 9.052E-02* ( # "    @`  BH?V F:  q?*(# "    @`  B? V:  Log (Amount Invested)( # "    @`  B?   v2.8****(# "    @`  B8?   t0.01*(# "    @`  B%?   q*(# "    @`  B.?   q*(# "    @`  BT9?  q*(# "    @`  BxC?#  q*(# "    @`  BL?0 #  u2.0***(# "    @`  BV?F 0  y 1.200E-02* ( # "    @`  B`?V F  q?*(# "    @`  Bj? V  0Standard Deviation of Cash Flows to Entrepreneur(1 0# "  1  @`  Bt?  9.9***6(' &    @`  B`n?  1.976(' &    @`  Bo?  q*(# "    @`  Bԁ?   q*(# "    @`  Bԛ?   q*(# "    @`  Bh?#   q*(# "    @`  B?0#  w13.6****(# "    @`  B?F0  t2.43*(# "    @`  B?VF  q+*(# "    @`  B?V  4Convertible Security with Actual Periodic Cash Flows(5 4# "  5  @`  B? v-2.2***(# "    @`  B@? u-0.70*(# "    @`  B? q*(# "    @`  B?  q*(# "    @`  BD?   q*(# "    @`  BX ?#   q*(# "    @`  BT?0#  t-1.2*(# "    @`  B?F0 u-0.46*(# "    @`  B?VF q+*(# "    @`  B`0?V VC Board Seat(s)( # " &     @`  Bx:?} -1.7*6(' &    @`  BD?} -0.406(' &    @`  BN?} q*(# "    @`  B$X? } q*(# "    @`  Bb? }  q*(# "    @`  Bk?# }  q*(# "    @`  B8u?0}#  t-1.2*(# "    @`  B~?F}0 u-0.30*(# "    @`  B?V}F q-*(# "    @`  Bd?}V { Co-Investment( # "    @`  B?} 1.7*6(' &    @`  B?} 0.516(' &    @`  B̯?} w-3.8****(# "    @`  Bt? } u-0.42*(# "    @`  B?  } q*(# "    @` ~ B?#  } q*(# "    @` } B?0# } s1.3*(# "    @` | B?F0} t0.34*(# "    @` { B\?VF} q+*(# "    @` z B?V} Syndicated Investment( # "    @` y B(?K s0.7*(# "    @` x B?K t0.19*(# "    @` w B ?K q*(# "    @` v Bt? K q*(# "    @` u B)? K  q*(# "    @` t B2?# K  q*(# "    @` s B,?0K#  s0.6*(# "    @` r Bh5?FK0 t0.18*(# "    @` q BN?VKF q?*(# "    @` p BY?KV }Lead Investment( # "    @` o BS?K q*(# "    @` n B]?K q*(# "    @` m Bv?K q*(# "    @` l Bg? K q*(# "    @` k BL?  K q*(# "    @` j B,?#  K q*(# "    @` i B8?0# K q*(# "    @` h B̗?F0K q*(# "    @` g B?VFK @  @` f B?VK Investment Characteristics* # "    @`   B ?"` { t-statistic* ( # "    @`   B ?"` { Coefficient* ( # "    @`   B< ?"` { t-statistic* ( # "    @`  B ?"`  { Coefficient* ( # "    @`  B ?"`#   Coefficient t-statistic*(# "    @`  Bx ?"`0#  { t-statistic* ( # "    @`  B ?"`F0 { Coefficient* ( # "    @`  Bl  ?"`  Dependent Variable = Log(1+IRR)* (# "    @`  B, ?"`  !Dependent Variable=1 if Full Exit*"(!# "  "  @`  B# ?"`#   Dependent Variable=1 if Exit*(# "    @`  B. ?"`F #  Dependent Variable = Log(1+IRR)* (# "    @`K  B( ?"` R  SStep 1b: Determinants of Full Exit, conditioned on step 1a regarding an actual exit*T(S# "  T  @`  BB ?"`# R  Step 1a: Determinants of Exit*(# "    @`=  BPanel A. Seed, Start-up, Early and Expansion Stage Investments*?(># "  ?  @`HB |& C HB }& C   HB ~& C  HB & C  ZB & s *1 ?ZB & s *1 ?22ZB & s *1 ?H $ 0޽h ? 33___PPT10i.@+D=' = @B +80  /A(  ,   / #"ZNC b/ B8q?b& t3.16*(# "    @` `/ BL{?q&b t4.06*(# "    @` ^/ BHs?F &q t2.39*(# "    @` \/ B?&F  t3.29*(# "    @` Z/ B?& Akaike Information Statistic( # "    @` X/ B?b& x-1740.97* (# "    @` V/ Bp?qb& x-2262.49* (# "    @` T/ B?F q& x-1307.71* (# "    @` R/ BP?F & x-1830.18* (# "    @`  P/ B?& Loglikelihood Function( # "      @` N/ BP?b  x91.66**** (# "    @` L/ B?q b x28.10**** (# "    @` J/ B?F q y 102.20**** ( # "    @` H/ B? F  z 37.50**** ( # "    @` F/ Bt?  y F Statistic(  # "    @` D/ B?bH   x0.70.(# "    @` B/ B?qH b  x0.25.(# "    @` @/ B\?F H q  x0.74.(# "    @` >/ B?H F  x0.36.(# "    @`    # + "    @` :/ B6?b H  t1122*(# "    @` 8/ B@?q bH  t1122*(# "    @` 6/ BxJ?F qH  t1122*(# "    @` 4/ BS? F H  t1122*(# "    @` 2/ B^? H  Number of Observations( # "    @` 1/ Bhg?B   q*(# "    @` 0/ Ba?b B  q*(# "    @` // Bz?O b  q*(# "    @` ./ B?q O  q*(# "    @` -/ B?&  q  @  @` ,/ B?F  &  @  @` +/ Bܟ? F  @  @` */ B?   @  @` (/ B?   Model Diagnostics* # "    @` '/ B@?Be   t-1.5*(# "    @` &/ B ?be B  u-0.05*(# "    @` %/ B?Oe b  q*(# "    @` $/ Bx?qe O  q*(# "    @` #/ Bd?& e q  w-6.5****(# "    @` "/ Bd?F e &   u-0.11*(# "    @` !/ B?e F   q*(# "    @`  / B?e   q*(# "    @` / B?je   q?*(# "    @` / B?e j  Log (Amount Invested)( # "    @` / B!?Bl e  v-2.4***(# "    @` / B?bl Be  u-0.01*(# "    @` / BX?Ol be  q*(# "    @` / B/?ql Oe  q*(# "    @` / BI?& l qe  w-9.7****(# "    @` / BB?F l & e  u-0.01*(# "    @` / B\?l F e  q*(# "    @` / BdV?l e  q*(# "    @` / Bo?jl e  q?*(# "    @` / Bxz?l je  0Standard Deviation of Cash Flows to Entrepreneur(1 0# "  1  @` / B?Bsl  -10.5***6 (' &    @` / Bȍ?bsBl  -2.646(' &    @` / Bd?Osbl  }6(' &    @` / B ?qsOl  }6(' &    @` / BВ?& sql  -19.5***6 (' &    @` / B?F s& l  -2.466(' &    @`  / B?sF l  }6(' &    @`  / BP?sl  }6(' &    @`  / Bh?jsl  }-6(' &    @`(  / Bd?sjl  4Convertible Security with Actual Periodic Cash Flows45 4' &  5  @`  / B,?Bs v5.5****(# "    @` / B?bBs t0.68*(# "    @` / B?Obs q*(# "    @` / B?qOs q*(# "    @` / B?& qs v5.7****(# "    @` / B ?F & s t0.51*(# "    @` / B4#?F s q*(# "    @` / B?s q*(# "    @` / B6?js q?*(# "    @` / B@?js VC Board Seat(s)( # " &     @` . B;?B3 1.9*6(' &    @` . BD?b3B 0.176(' &    @` . B\_?O3b }6(' &    @` . BX?q3O }6(' &    @` . Bs?& 3q 3.8***6(' &    @` . Bl?F 3&  0.236(' &    @` . Bd?3F  }6(' &    @` . Bh?3 }6(' &    @` . Bԙ?j3 }+6(' &    @` . B$?3j  Co-Investment4 ' &    @` . Bܭ?B3 -8.2***6(' &    @` . B(?bB3 -0.756(' &    @` . B|?Ob3 -5.5***6(' &    @` . B?qO3 -0.766(' &    @` . B?& q3 -4.2***6(' &    @` . BH?F & 3 -0.286(' &    @` . B?F 3 -3.2***6(' &    @` . B?3 -0.3106(' &    @` . B|?j3 }-6(' &    @`  . B?j3 Syndicated Investment4 ' &    @` . BX?B s1.3*(# "    @` . BP?bB t0.14*(# "    @` . B?Ob q*(# "    @` . Bx.?qO q*(# "    @` . B (?& q t-0.7*(# "    @` . B$B?F &  u-0.05*(# "    @` . B;?F  q*(# "    @` . BU? q*(# "    @` . B_?j q?*(# "    @` . Bi?j }Lead Investment( # "    @` . Bhs?BQ q*(# "    @` . B|?bQB q*(# "    @` . Bv?OQb q*(# "    @` . B<?qQO q*(# "    @` . B?& Qq @  @` . B@?F Q&  @  @` . B?QF  @  @` . BЭ?Q @  @` . B?jQ @  @` . B?Qj Investment Characteristics* # "    @` . B?BQ { t-statistic* ( # "    @` . B?bBQ { Coefficient* ( # "    @` . B?ObQ { t-statistic* ( # "    @` . B?qOQ { Coefficient* ( # "    @` . B0?& qQ { t-statistic* ( # "    @` . B?F & Q { Coefficient* ( # "    @` . B8 ?F Q { t-statistic* ( # "    @` . B?Q { Coefficient* ( # "    @`_ . B?b? uDependent Variable: Unrealized Log(1+IRR) - Fitted Values from Predicted Log (1+IRR) in Model (2) of Table IV Panel A*v(u# "  v  @`_ . B?q?b uDependent Variable: Unrealized Log(1+IRR) - Fitted Values from Predicted Log (1+IRR) in Model (2) of Table IV Panel A*v(u# "  v  @`_ . Bt*?F ?q uDependent Variable: Unrealized Log(1+IRR) - Fitted Values from Predicted Log (1+IRR) in Model (1) of Table IV Panel A*v(u# "  v  @`_ . B 5??F  uDependent Variable: Unrealized Log(1+IRR) - Fitted Values from Predicted Log (1+IRR) in Model (1) of Table IV Panel A*v(u# "  v  @` . BxP?b? z Model (2b)* ( # "    @` . B<[?qb? z Model (2a)* ( # "    @` . Be?F q? z Model (1b)* ( # "    @` . BL`?F ? z Model (1a)* ( # "    @` . BPz?jQ ~Predicted Sign*(# "    @` . Bt?jQ q*(# "    @`( . B? >Panel A. Seed, Start-up, Early and Expansion Stage Investments*?(># "  ?  @`HB d/ C ZB e/ s *1 ?HB f/ C HB g/ C ZB i/ s *1 ?ZB j/ s *1 ?QQZB u/ s *1 ?H , 0޽h ? 33___PPT10i.Y+D=' = @B + 0 A(  x  c $< @F    s p0e0e  @#" 0e`   t ,  A #"&rrr: P 8 <|5?q O7.75% @` 6 <?q P15.22% @` 4 <?q q'Predicted IRR (Based on Table IV Model)(( @` 1 <? q S8.70% @` / <? q T98.46% @` - < ? q p"Subsequently Realized Reported IRR## @` ( <?   S2.56% @` & <d?   U219.71% @` $ <?   eUnrealized reported IRR @`  <(?   S 2.6 years   @`  <@ ?   S 2.6 years   @`  <:?   ,Duration Report Exit. @`  <L?,   PMedian @`  <HU?,   QAverage @`  <^?,   B @``B  0o ?, , ZB  s *1 ?  `B  0o ?`B  0o ?, ZB  s *1 ?, ZB  s *1 ?, `B   0o ?, ZB % s *1 ?  ZB . s *1 ?  ZB 5 s *1 ?qqH  0޽h ? 33___PPT10i.p+D=' = @B +:x50 QwIw ]v(  \ v  ] #"NBfff fffffffffff \] B?c  @  @` [] B?A c @  @` Z] B,?$ A u0.595*(#     @` Y] Bؖ? $ u1.058*(#     @` X] BX*?  v-0.049*(#     @` W] B ?  v-0.085*(#     @` V] B?  u0.309*(#     @` U] B0?|  u0.070*(#     @` T] B?d | q+*(#     @`6 S] Bt? d 4Log (Portfolio Size (# Investees) / General Partner)(5 4#  &     @` R] B?c   @  @` Q] B(?A c  @  @` P] BD?$ A  u0.043*(#     @` O] BX ? $  u0.045*(#     @` N] BT?   v-0.320*(#     @` M] B?  v-0.351*(#     @` L] B?  v-1.529*(#     @` K] B ?|   v-0.441*(#     @` J] B$:?d |  q-*(#     @` I] BD? d  'Log (Age of PE Fund within the PE Firm)(( '#   (  @` H] BhM?c)   @  @` G] BPV?A) c  @  @` F] B0X?$) A  @  @` E] Blh?) $  @  @` D] BLj? )   @  @` C] Bz? )  @  @` B] Bh|?)  @  @` A] B?|)   @  @` @] B?d) |  @  @` ?] B?) d  Fund Characteristics* #     @` 4] B?c0 )  B  @` 3] B?A0 c)  B  @` 2] B?$0 A)  B  @` 1] B?0 $)  B  @` 0] B,? 0 )  -1.4204('     @` /] B? 0 )  -21.2294('     @` .] B?0 )   -2.629***4 ( '     @` -] B?|0 )  -9.5774('     @` ,] B?d0 |)  {-4('     @` +] B?0 d)  Country Disclosure Level Index2 '     @` *] B?c7 0  2.453**4('     @` )] B ?A7 c0  375.4574('     @` (] B?$7 A0  2.530**4('     @` '] B(?7 $0  387.3774('     @` &] B|#? 7 0  1.711*4('     @` %] B<<? 7 0  361.2774('     @` $] BE?7 0  1.1664('     @` #] BO?|7 0  53.5444('     @` "] B-?d7 |0  {+4('     @` !] BLc?7 d0  %Country Earnings Aggressiveness Index2& %'   &  @`  ] BDl?c7  @  @` ] B$n?Ac7  @  @` ] B?$A7  u0.987*(#     @` ] B(z?$7  u0.362*(#     @` ] B? 7  @  @` ] B?  7  @  @` ] BD? 7  @  @` ] B$?|7  @  @` ] B?d|7  q?*(#     @` ] B?d7  &Duration from Reporting to Realization(' &#   '  @` ] B?c% v-0.054*(#     @` ] B?A%c v-0.168*(#     @` ] Bd?$%A v-0.434*(#     @` ] BP?%$ v-1.925*(#     @` ] BP? % u0.124*(#     @` ] BD? %  u0.566*(#     @` ] B ?%  @  @` ] B?|% @  @` ] B?d%| q?*(#     @`&  ] B$?%d >Log (MSCI Return Reporting Time) - Log (MSCI Return Exit Time)(? >#   ?  @`  ] B?c,% @  @`  ] B/?A,c% @  @`  ] Bd@?$,A% @  @`  ] BDB?,$% @  @` ] BR? ,% @  @` ] BT? , % @  @` ] B\f?, % v-0.801*(#     @` ] B`?|,% v-0.884*(#     @` ] B$j?d,|% q-*(#     @` ] B̄?,d%  Log (MSCI Return Reporting Time)(! #   !  @` ] B(?c3, @  @` ] B@?A3c, @  @` ] B?$3A, @  @` \ B?3$, @  @` \ B? 3, @  @` \ Bp? 3 , @  @` \ B?3 , @  @` \ B?|3, @  @` \ Bt?d3|, @  @` \ B?3d, Market and Legal Factors* #     @` \ B?c3 x2.784**** (#     @` \ B?Ac3 v17.299*(#     @` \ B(?$A3 u0.907*(#     @` \ B< ?$3 u7.729*(#     @` \ B8? 3 u1.517*(#     @` \ B?  3 w106.795*(#     @` \ B(? 3 x3.035**** (#     @` \ B"?|3 v52.581*(#     @` \ B9?d|3 @  @` \ BC?d3 vConstant(  #     @` \ B>?c { t-statistic* ( #     @` \ B`W?Ac { Coefficient* ( #     @` \ B$a?$A { t-statistic* ( #     @` \ Bk?$ { Coefficient* ( #     @` \ B f?  { t-statistic* ( #     @` \ B?   { Coefficient* ( #     @` \ Bz?  { t-statistic* ( #     @` \ B?| { Coefficient* ( #     @` \ B?d q*(#     @`, \ B8?A BUnrealized Reported Log(1+IRR) - Subsequently Realized Log (1+IRR)*C(B#   C  @`, \ Bx?A BUnrealized Reported Log(1+IRR) - Subsequently Realized Log (1+IRR)*C(B#   C  @`, \ B?  BUnrealized Reported Log(1+IRR) - Subsequently Realized Log (1+IRR)*C(B#   C  @`T \ BP?|  jUnrealized Reported Log(1+IRR) - Fitted Values from Predicted Log (1+IRR) in Model (1) of Table IV Panel B*k(j#   k  @` \ BL?AO Dependent Variable:*(#     @` \ BX?OA Dependent Variable:*(#     @` \ B ? O Dependent Variable:*(#     @` \ Bl?|O  Dependent Variable:*(#     @` \ B?AO z Model (A4)* ( #     @` \ B?AO z Model (A3)* ( #     @` \ B? O z Model (A2)* ( #     @` \ B<?| O z Model (A1)* ( #     @` \ B?d| ~Predicted Sign*(#     @` \ B0?d q*(#     @` \ B*? 6Table VIII. Determinants of the Difference between Reported Unrealized IRRs Disclosed to Institutional Investors and Subsequently Realized IRRs,(#  @H  @    @`HB g] C HB h] C HB i] C HB j] C ZB l] s *1 ?ZB w] s *1 ? ] <Al  (Continued& H \ 0޽h ? 33___PPT10i.0+D=' = @B +L60 c[ e(  d  e #"^RMrrrrrrrr~ e B,w?A6 u5.587*(#     @` e By?6A u5.668*(#     @` e B@|? 6 u5.641*(#     @` e B?|6  u2.983*(#     @` e Bt?6| Akaike Information Statistic( #     @` e Bp?A6 x-211.481* (#     @` e B,?A6 x-209.713* (#     @` e Bܡ? 6 x-211.641* (#     @` e Bȴ?| 6 x-105.336* (#     @`  e B<?|6 Loglikelihood Function( #       @` e Bh?A v2.35***(#     @` e Bh?A u1.74**(#     @` e Bt?  v1.90***(#     @` e B?|  x20.97**** (#     @` e B?| y F Statistic(  #     @` e B?Ak  w0.159,(#     @` e B?k A w0.131,(#     @` e Bx!? k  w0.130,(#     @` e B*?|k  w0.766,(#     @` e B6?k |  Adjusted R2<  # +     @` e B 0?A k  r80*(#     @` e BI? Ak  r80*(#     @` e BC? k  r80*(#     @` e BL?| k  r80*(#     @` e B0g? |k  Number of Observations( #     @` e Bo?c9   @ @` e By?A9 c  @  @` e B{?$9 A  @  @` e B?9 $  @  @` e Bdt? 9   @  @` e B? 9  @  @` e B?9  @  @` e B?|9   @  @` e Bh?9 |  Model Diagnostics* #     @` e B$?c 9  @ @` e B?A c9  @  @` e B?$ A9  u1.071*(#     @` e B? $9  u0.372*(#     @` e B? 9  u0.775*(#     @` e B? 9  u0.341*(#     @` e B? 9  v-1.035*(#     @` e B?| 9  v-0.112*(#     @` e BX? |9  q?*(#     @` e B? 9  Log (Amount Invested)( #     @` e B8#?c   @  @` e B,?A c  @  @` e B`5?$ A  @  @` e B?? $  @  @` e B8I?   u0.032*(#     @` e B(:?  u0.005*(#     @` e B\?  u1.102*(#     @` e BV?|   u0.081*(#     @` e BdW? |  q?*(#     @` e Bdz?   0Standard Deviation of Cash Flows to Entrepreneur(1 0#   1  @` e B(?cN    -3.437***4 ( '     @` ~e B~?AN c  -3.1294('     @` }e B4?$N A   -3.317***4 ( '     @` |e B?N $  -3.2154('     @` {e Bl? N    -3.145***4 ( '     @` ze B? N  -3.2014('     @` ye BX?N   -10.880***4 ( '     @` xe B?|N   -2.7034('     @` we B\?N |  {-4('     @`& ve B?N   4Convertible Security with Actual Periodic Cash Flows25 4'   5  @` ue B|?cN  @  @` te B?AcN  @  @` se B$?$AN  u0.511*(#     @` re B?$N  u0.657*(#     @` qe B ? N  u0.518*(#     @` pe BL?  N  u0.691*(#     @` oe B"? N   -2.600***4 ( '     @` ne B,?|N  -0.6394('     @` me B|'?|N  {-4('     @` le B@A?N  Syndicated Investment2 '     @` ke BI?c @  @` je BS?Ac @  @` ie BN?$A @  @` he Bd?$ @  @` ge B`n?  @  @` fe Bp?   @  @` ee B?  @  @` de Bx?| @  @` ce B?| @  @` be B? Investment Characteristics* #     @` `e B?A# sYes*(#     @` ^e B?#A sYes*(#     @` \e B? # rNo*(#     @` Ze B<?|#  rNo*(#     @` Ye B?#| @  @` Xe B?# Country Dummy Variables?( #     @` Ve BT?A*# sYes*(#     @` Te B?*A# sYes*(#     @` Re B? *# sYes*(#     @` Pe BH?|* # sYes*(#     @` Oe B?*|# @  @` Ne B?*# Industry Dummy Variables?( #     @` Me B ?c1* u0.042*(#     @` Le B$?A1c* u0.051*(#     @` Ke B?$1A* v-0.168*(#     @` Je B8?1$* v-0.189*(#     @` Ie B@2? 1* u0.147*(#     @` He BL? 1 * u0.162*(#     @` Ge BV?1 * 2.620***4 ('     @` Fe Bp_?|1* 0.6734('     @` Ee BHi?1|* {+4('     @` De Bs?1* Log (Industry Market / Book)2 '     @` Ce B |?c1 @ @` Be B,?Ac1 @  @` Ae B?$A1 @  @` @e BĈ?$1 @  @` ?e BH? 1 @  @` >e BD?  1 @  @` =e B? 1 @  @` ?- "  B0.27"(F v BA? - "  B0.18"(F v BE?- "  A Fund Size (  u B4I? -  <1.00( u B$M? -  >0.23(B u BP? -  `(Fitted Values from Difference Regression)() u BU?  <0.23( u BX?   <1.00( u B\?  IActual Difference( u B`? _'Fitted Value From Difference Regression((( u B4d?  d,Actual Difference (Reported - Predicted IRR)-(- u Bg?  9(ZB -v s *1 ?ZB .v s *1 ?ZB /v s *1 ?ZB 0v s *1 ?ZB 3v s *1 ?ZB 5v s *1 ?  ZB 8v s *1 ?ZB Kv s *1 ?  ZB qv s *1 ?- - ZB v s *1 ?" " ZB v s *1 ?  ZB v s *1 ?66H t 0޽h ? 33___PPT10i.κ+D=' = @B + /0   (   x   c $P"   H   0޽h ? 33___PPT10i.0+D=' = @B + 0 <*(  <x < c $ @`   r < S L @P   H < 0޽h ? 33___PPT10i.@+D=' = @B + 0 *(  x  c $$ @`   r  S  @P  H  0޽h ? 33___PPT10i.̙+D=' = @B +0  ,(  ^  S T(K     c $ƁT 0)   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.L0 0,(  ^  S T(K     c $8T 0)   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.L0 @,(  ^  S T(K     c $"T 0)   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.L0 P,(  ^  S T(K   "  c $T!"T 0)  " " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.L0 `,(  ^  S T(K   "  c $ 6"T 0)  " " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.L0 ,(  ^  S T(K     c $hT 0)   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.L0 ,(  ^  S T(K     c $T 0)   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.L 0 ,(  ^  S T(K     c $4T 0)   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.L!0 ,(  ^  S T(K     c $tKT 0)   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.AN 0 ,(  ^  S T(K     c $mT 0)   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.AN 0 P,(  ^  S T(K     c $lT 0)   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.AN0 `,(  ^  S T(K     c $ĶT 0)   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.AN0 ,(  ^  S T(K     c $T 0)   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.@O0 ,(  ^  S T(K     c $~T 0)   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.@O0  ,(   ^   S T(K      c $liT 0)   " H   0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.@O 0 (,(  (^ ( S T(K    ( c $PT 0)   " H ( 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.@O0 ,,(  ,^ , S T(K    , c $T 0)   " H , 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.@O('0 8(  d  c $T(K     s *"T 0)   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.L(+0 8(  d  c $T(K     s *XT 0)   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.AN(,0 @8(  d  c $T(K     s *tT 0)   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.AN(-0 `8(  d  c $T(K     s *|T 0)   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.AN(.0 8(  d  c $T(K     s *l֥T 0)   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.AN(/0 8(  d  c $T(K     s *T 0)   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.AN(00 8(  d  c $T(K     s *ɳT 0)   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.AN(10 8(  d  c $T(K     s *lT 0)   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.AN(20 8(  d  c $T(K     s *T 0)   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.AN(30 @8(  d  c $T(K     s *T 0)   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.@O(40 `8(  d  c $T(K     s *T 0)   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.@O(50 8(  d  c $T(K     s *0T 0)   " H  0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.@O(70  (8(  (d ( c $T(K    ( s *T 0)   " H ( 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.@O(=0 p P8(  Pd P c $T(K    P s *T 0)   " H P 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.@O(>0  `8(  `d ` c $T(K    ` s *8T 0)   " H ` 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.@O(?0  h8(  hd h c $T(K    h s *̦T 0)   " H h 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.@O *0  p(  pX p C T(K    p S $"T 0)    H p 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.I 80  t(  tX t C T(K    t S T 0)    H t 0޽h ? 3380___PPT10.IrPs8wyp|~ x ݻ =i~>#0 @ o#9еBDFI'K-@KMoOQS2U: W#Z>G\A k^`D bdH0FFV_Og ־GJ y̹YFp;f+i[kmoqtKv{xz| ;p0!2 tPkˇ#x1Oh+'0 hp  $ 0 <HP8Private Equity Returns and Disclosure Around the World dcumming CapsulesDouglas John Cumming39Microsoft PowerPoint@)ɬ@ W@ .+z G g  J  y--$xx--'̙--$xPxP--'--J$#   " % (+-/122V2Y2\1_/a-c+e(f%f"feca_\YV--'3f--$ UU[[?[?[?U?UU--'--$ UUVWXYZ[[[UU--'@Arial-.  2 t1."System;-@Arial-. 3f02 Private Equity Returns and y.-3f--@Arial-. 3f02 (Disclosure Around the Worldy .-3f-))-@Arial-. ff2 9SDouglas Cumming.-@Arial-. ff 2 ASand.-@Arial-. ff2 ISUwe Walz.-@Arial-. 2 fP̽Ƶz.-@Arial-. 12 f`Conference on Private Equity.-@Arial-. 2 kP May 2, 2007m.-՜.+,0     On-screen ShowSchool of Business## )Arial WingdingsTimes New Roman宋体 CapsulesDefault Design7Private Equity Returns and Disclosure Around the World$Motivation: Worldwide Policy DebateResearch QuestionsPrior ResearchNew ContributionsTI. Theory and Hypotheses II. Data III. Econometric Tests IV. Policy ImplicationsSlide 7 1. Advice, Monitoring & Returns,1. Advice, Monitoring & Returns (Continued)-2. Biases in Reporting Un-Exited Investments92. Biases in Reporting Un-Exited Investments (Continued)TI. Theory and Hypotheses II. Data III. Econometric Tests IV. Policy ImplicationsCEPRES Dataset Slide 14 Slide 15 Slide 16 Slide 17 Slide 18 Slide 19HI. Theory and Hypotheses II. Data III. Econometric Tests IV. Remarks$“Realized Returns Econometrics”3-Step Heckman Correction Slide 23 Slide 24=Unexited Reported IRRs (2000 – 2003) versus Predicted IRRs Slide 26 Slide 27\Appendix: Compare Actual IRR to Prior Reported Unexited IRR (This is possible now in 2006!) Slide 29 Slide 30/Overstatement of Unexited IRRs and Fundraising=Correlations: Overstatement of Unexited IRRs and FundraisingTI. Theory and Hypotheses II. Data III. Econometric Tests IV. Policy ImplicationsMeasuring VC Returns2Unexited IRRs Reported to Institutional Investors  Fonts UsedDesign Template Slide Titles#,_㫏Douglas John CummingDouglas John Cumming  !"#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz{|}~      !"#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz{|}~      !"#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz{|}~      !"#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz{|}~    Root EntrydO)PicturesJcCurrent User SummaryInformation(PowerPoint Document(ϏDocumentSummaryInformation8